Low Risk, High Reward: Why the Mets Bet on Luis Robert Jr.
Low Risk, High Reward: Why the Mets Bet on Luis Robert Jr.
Low Risk, High Reward: Why the Mets Bet on Luis Robert Jr.
1/21/26
Late into Tuesday night, David Stearns made yet another huge move this offseason, this time trading for centerfielder Luis Robert Jr.
In the deal, the Mets sent pitcher Truman Pauley, who was drafted in the 12th round of the 2025 draft, and infielder Luisangel Acuna to the White Sox in return for former Gold Glove and All-Star Luis Robert Jr. The Mets will also be taking on Robert’s $20 million AAV deal with a team option in 2027.
Robert's highlight season of his career was in 2023. That year, the righty finished with 38 homeruns, 80 RBIs, a .857 OPS, and a 5.3 WAR, which all led him to be slected ot an all-star game, win a silver slugger, and finish 12th in AL MVP voting. But since then, the now 27-year-old has back-to-back .220 batting average and 14 home run seasons.
The major hole in his production was his struggle to hit off righties. In 2025, Robert had a .211 average, 35% strikeout rate, and just 8 home runs. On top of that, Robert has also had a struggle to stay healthy; other than his 2023 campaign, he has failed to exceed 110 games since 2021.
Despite the struggles, the certainty you get is his elite fielding and speed. Defense is something the Mets have been stressing all offseason, and the former Gold Glovers give the Mets everything you could ask for, in 2025 he posted a 7 OAA, which is in the 93rd percentile of qualified outfielders. His speed also gives another certain to look for, he was in the 90th percentile of qualified players in sprint speed, and he stole 33 stolen bases in just 110 games, which put him at 5th in the AL and 11th in the MLB.
This trade is looking to be a low risk high reward for New York. They traded away Acuna, who would have only had a role as a pitch runner in 2026 and shown limited offensive potential in two years in the MLB. Robert gives you a floor offensively, which is higher than Acuna, while being just as efficient running the bases as Acuna. Robert could also have a bounce-back season in 2026, now being under less pressure to produce offensively in NY, as he’s slotted bat in the back of the order.
Robert looks to join an outfielders room of Jaun Soto, Tyrone Taylor, and Carson Benge in 2026.